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  • 27 Dec Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence of a particular factor (e.g. GHGs, aerosols, or land use changes) on the net change in Earth's energy balance. On average, a positive radiative forcing tends to warm the surface of the planet, while a negative forcing tends to cool the surface. GHGs have a.
  • The temperature of the earth is rising at nearly twice the rate it was 50 years ago. This rapid rate and pattern of warming, scientists have concluded, cannot be explained by natural cycles alone. The only way to explain the pattern is to include the effect of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted by humans. To come to a .
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  • A major cause of global warming is the attitude of mankind to Nature. Technical solutions alone won't be enough to fight global warming, we have to wake up and change the true causes for the current situation.

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  1. Alan Caruba (October 9, in Newark, New Jersey – June 15, in South Orange, New Jersey) was a conservative American journalist, public relations counselor and freelance writer-blogger who was a frequent critic of environmentalism, Socialism, Communism, Islam, homosexuality, and global warming claims.:
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Scientists have devised different methods to answer this question. Meteorologists and oceanographers compare the climate patterns they observe with patterns developed using sophisticated models of Earth's atmosphere and ocean. Scientists have gathered evidence and have improved their methods for teasing apart natural and human factors. Today scientists have very high confidence about human-caused global average surface temperature increase — a key climate indicator. Carbon dioxide CO 2 is the main heat-trapping gas largely responsible for most of the average warming over the past several decades.

The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 has increased dramatically, from a pre-industrial era AD — concentration of approximately parts per million ppm to today's ppm.

Scientists warned for years about this dangerous threshold, but with the accelerated pace of emissions the question changed from whether we would reach CO 2 concentrations above ppm to when. The Arctic reached ppm in In the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii recorded more than ppm. In March global averages reached this threshold, and in September the world reached a point of no-return: CO 2 concentration levels are unlikely to dip below ppm again.

While the concentration of carbon has increased, the carbon originating from natural sources has decreased. We know human activities are driving the increase in CO 2 concentrations because atmospheric CO 2 contains information about its source.

Scientists can tease apart how much CO 2 comes from natural sources, and how much comes from combusted fossil fuel sources. This information tells scientists that fossil fuel emissions are the largest contributor of CO 2 concentrations since the pre-industrial era. Volcanic events and some types of human-made pollution, both of which inject sunlight-reflecting aerosols i. Human activity drives climate change. History of Climate Drivers: Volcanic eruptions account for the cooling spikes seen in the graph in and Among natural drivers, a large volcanic eruption can have a sharp cooling influence as it spews tiny particles high into the stratosphere the layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere where weather typically occurs.

The massive explosions from Krakatoa Indonesia in and Mount Pinatubo Philippines in , for example, can be seen as the two largest downward spikes in the volcanic data depicted in the figure to the right. These particles prevented the full energy of the sun from reaching the surface of Earth and created a cooling trend for several years. Fossil fuel burning by humans emits tiny particles in addition to releasing CO 2 in the atmosphere. Some particles reflect sunlight back to space aerosols , similar to the volcanic particles, having a cooling effect.

Other particles such as soot black carbon absorb the sunlight and drive temperature rise, leading to local warming of the atmosphere level where the soot particles circulate.

Very likely, there would have been even more warming in the past 60 years if it were not for these human-made and natural tiny particles. Some of these climate drivers result in warming and others lead to cooling, but when all the natural and human-induced climate drivers are stacked up and compared to one another, the accumulation of human-released heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere is so large that it has very likely swamped other climate drivers over the past half century, leading to observed global warming.

Much as the Air Force develops computer programs to simulate aircraft flight under different conditions, climate scientists develop computer programs to simulate global climate changes under different conditions. These programs use our knowledge of physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur within Earth's atmosphere and oceans and on its land surfaces.

Mathematical models allow scientists to simulate the behavior of complex systems like climate and explore how these systems respond to natural and human factors. When models take into account both natural and human drivers, they better reflect the observed changes in temperature. When absorbed energy is released back into space, Earth cools. This record shows that the climate system varies naturally over a wide range of time scales.

In general, climate changes prior to the Industrial Revolution in the s can be explained by natural causes, such as changes in solar energy, volcanic eruptions, and natural changes in greenhouse gas GHG concentrations. Recent climate changes, however, cannot be explained by natural causes alone. Research indicates that natural causes do not explain most observed warming, especially warming since the mid th century.

Rather, it is extremely likely that human activities have been the dominant cause of that warming. Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence of a particular factor e. On average, a positive radiative forcing tends to warm the surface of the planet, while a negative forcing tends to cool the surface.

This warms the atmosphere like a blanket. Aerosols, or small particles, can have a positive or negative radiative forcing, depending on how they absorb and emit heat or reflect light.

For example, black carbon aerosols have a positive forcing since they absorb sunlight. Sulfate aerosols have a negative forcing since they reflect sunlight back into space. Once absorbed, the planet releases some of the energy back into the atmosphere as heat also called infrared radiation.

In this way, GHGs act like a blanket, making Earth warmer than it would otherwise be. Until the past century, natural factors caused atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to vary within a range of about to parts per million by volume ppmv.

Warmer periods coincide with periods of relatively high CO 2 concentrations. Increases over the past half century are shown in the Recent Role section. Based on data appearing in NRC Climate feedbacks amplify or reduce direct warming and cooling effects. Feedbacks that amplify changes are called positive feedbacks. Feedbacks that counteract changes are called negative feedbacks. Feedbacks are associated with changes in surface reflectivity, clouds, water vapor, and the carbon cycle.

Water vapor appears to cause the most important positive feedback. As Earth warms, the rate of evaporation and the ability of air to hold water vapor both rise, increasing the amount of water vapor in the air.

Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this leads to further warming. The melting of Arctic sea ice is another example of a positive climate feedback. As temperatures rise, sea ice retreats. The loss of ice exposes the underlying sea surface, which is darker and absorbs more sunlight than ice, increasing the total amount of warming. Some types of clouds cause a negative feedback. Warming temperatures can increase the amount or reflectivity of these clouds, reflecting more sunlight back into space, cooling the surface of the planet.

Other types of clouds, however, contribute a positive feedback. For example, as temperatures warm:. These changes lead to higher concentrations of atmospheric GHGs and contribute to increased warming.

The primary human activity affecting the amount and rate of climate change is greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. The sources and recent trends of these gases are detailed below. Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas that is contributing to recent climate change.

Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, release large amounts of CO 2 , causing concentrations in the atmosphere to rise. The monthly average concentration at Mauna Loa now exceeds ppmv for the first time in human history.

Methane is produced through both natural and human activities. For example, natural wetlands, agricultural activities, and fossil fuel extraction and transport all emit CH 4. In recent decades, the rate of increase has slowed considerably. Nitrous oxide is produced through natural and human activities, mainly through agricultural activities and natural biological processes.

Fuel burning and some other processes also create N 2 O. Overall, N 2 O concentrations have increased more rapidly during the past century than at any time in the past 22, years.

To learn more about actions that can reduce these emissions, see What You Can Do. Particles and aerosols in the atmosphere can also affect climate. Human activities such as burning fossil fuels and biomass contribute to emissions of these substances, although some aerosols also come from natural sources such as volcanoes and marine plankton.

It has followed its natural year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase bottom. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly top.

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Global Warming Causes Global warming is primarily a problem of too much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere—which acts as a blanket, trapping heat and warming. Causes and Effects of Climate Change What causes climate change (also known as global warming)? And what are the effects of climate change? Learn the . Anthropogenic Causes of Global Warming. The most important greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and water vapor. While all these gases occur.

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Climate Change Explained